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Tuesday, March 9, 2010

For the first time in his career Obama will have to run on his record...

Steve Kornacki states that the GOP can win in 2010 but not beyond. He rips Rush Limbaugh for ripping him, then gives recent electoral history a bizarre, self serving rewrite to make his point.
He fails.
Kornacki says in effect "Sure the GOP won in 1994 but hey Clinton came back to be re-elected in 1996!" This is an Obama hopium flashback. The intent is to both make Obamaphiles okay with the coming GOP landslide, and to assure them that he'll win re-election. Cuz, you know, Clinton did and he's A CLINTON! Obama can top THAT. He's OBAMA!
Kornacki's reasoning is shallow and borderline stupid. It doesn't take a Mensa member to see that 2010 is not 1994, 2012 will not be 1996, and Barack Obama is no Bill Clinton. He claims the GOP did not learn their lesson upon winning back the House after 40 years in 1994. One wonders what lesson he's referring to. The GOP held the House for 12 of the past 16 years, and saw a two term presidency. This, in Kornacki's mind, is how the nation punished Republicans for overreaching. Not exactly tough love.
2010 is shaping up very much like 1994, though looking even worse for the Democrats. On this point he's correct. The assumption that the GOP will quickly implode after regaining a majority this Fall is specious....at best. The GOP did not implode. They overplayed their hand and were outflanked by a superior politician. The government shut down was a battle of wills and balls. Clinton had both, Gingrich had neither. Having won that battle Clinton saved his presidency. He did not damage the new GOP majority in Congress. At all. Neither did the nation find the "far right" GOP congress repellent. It happily re-elected nearly all of it the next chance it got.
Clinton was handily re-elected in 1996 to be sure. This was hardly a repudiation of the GOP. The economy was good and improving. Clinton has proven himself to be a solid executive who connected with people, and his opponent was an elderly, grumpy man who ran a weak campaign. Which of these elements will be present for Obama in 2012? I'm going with NONE.
The GOP will not nominate another Bob Dole. The economy may be better but, then again, it probably won't be substantially better and could easily be worse. Are Obama's executive skills merely latent, set to suddenly emerge? I see no evidence of this. Without media hand jobs and conjured crowds Obama is Willy Loman. He's liked but he not well liked. He's likable enough. Oddly, Clinton was the opposite. Often he was not liked, but had the ability to be well liked when the focus was on his job performance. Obama has shown no such ability. The GOP is always in danger of overshooting to the right. They may again. But given the direction much of the country is headed right now the overshoot will have to be far to the right.
Since Obama apologists concocted his resume and achievements out of whole cloth they miss the most salient fact of the 2012 election: For the first time in his career Obama will have to run on his record. Thus far he does not have one.
Morning links will be Evening links today, appearing later.

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What's a few weeks of bad press when billions are on the way?

As this ABC News article points out the health insurance industry would benefit lavishly if "Obama-don't-care" passes. How can a mandate to buy their product NOT pay off? Not to mention government subsidies to buy their product. The big lie being told by Obama and his minions of late is that "big insurance" wants to stop the Democratic plan. The truth is big insurance LOVES their plan.
It makes me wonder if the insurance hikes we've seen across the board lately isn't a way of helping Obama make his case - and therefore help the insurance cabal to a law forcing us to fork over cash. Blue Cross hit Virginia with a 20% increase, on the heels of California's 39% increase.
12 other states have seen double digit increases this year. Logic would dictate that health insurers should not be playing the bad guy at the moment an allegedly anti-insurer bill is being debated nationwide. Unless, of course, they need to give their man in the White House cover. What's a few weeks of bad press when billions are on the way?

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morning links etc.

Can this possibly be true? Palin happily admits to using Canada's evil socialist heath care system.

GOP Gay basher who was arrested for D.U.I. comes out of the closet. He has thousands and thousands of brave men and women to thank and beg forgiveness of for the simple fact that he's is free to come out at all.
The end of the Reid/Bama/Pelosi monster near? Why moderate dem must stand up to Obama now.
The new normal is now in Detroit. Motor City shrinks. On Purpose.
Another sign of the new normal: Kansas City School chief is demanding change you better believe in .

Question of the day:
I'd like to hold off until the 17th to post this version of Danny Boy...but I cannot wait...is there a better version? I've not heard it. And I listen to this song in one form or another once a month just to keep things in perspective....

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Monday, March 8, 2010

What if Hillary were President?

It's beginning to feel like the health care debate is a rain storm that will never let up and we're all stuck inside as it pours for days, weeks, and months on end. I make my daily late afternoon visit to RCP (the kitchen window in this metaphor) to see what it looks like out there. Same as yesterday, yesterweek and yestermonth.

Polls say the bill is unpopular.
Democrats to go it alone.
Pelosi pushes for votes in the House.
Senator So and So calls GOP the party of no.
Reid compares the Senate bill to Moses' tablets from God.
Obama pushes HC in speech to blahs blahs in blah blah town.
Mitch McConnell still grumpy.
Does it matter what day it is? They all fade together in the torrents of nonsense currently known as our government. I must step back from the depressing, endless rain and imagine summer. The best version of summer I can think of right now is a mind game called "What if Hillary were President?" Let's imagine that and focus solely on health care. Here's my guess, understanding - as it seems only Clinton Democrats and McCain voters did in 2008 - that politicians are not magical messiahs who ride in on unicorns. We can make a few educated guesses as to how it would have turned out. None are a stretch:
1. Clinton also would have made health care a central item in her first year.
2. Clinton, having learned the hard way in 1993, would have both lead and collaborated throughout the debate, not punted or relied exclusively on rhetoric.
3. The final bill would have been too moderate for the Left which would have wailed to high heaven. It is, after all, a Clinton in the White House in our game. (Unlike our current situation in which the Left is annoyed but can't bring themselves to go after His Royal Highness.) To be fair, they'd also have good reason. The bill would include a mandate but not a public option.
4. A few onerous and obnoxious deals would have been made along the way - but nothing to the degree we saw in December.
5. Rahm Emmanuel would be in a position of power. He would have collaborated every day with President Clinton on the health care bill. Neither would have relinquished huge amounts of power to Reid or Pelosi. Clinton, unlike Obama, is both a hard worker and a policy wonk.
6. The blow back against the bill would have started just as early and been just as fierce. BUT Clinton's blow back against the blow back would have been intelligent, consistent, every bit as fierce, and born of harsh experience.
7. Bills would have passed in the House and the Senate just as in our current reality. The difference being that Clinton would have gotten a few GOP Senators to vote Yea. The Maine senators come to mind.
8. Scott Brown would have lost. There would have been no bogus summit. Most of the GOP would be in full attack mode - but with much less ammo. Clinton would have gone on Fox news, not banned it.
9. The House and Senate bills would have been reconciled in a mostly transparent and proper way with Clinton at the head of the table, not Pelosi.
10. The final push in Clinton's Presidency would have occurred around Halloween of last year - not March of 2010. Clinton would have done what Obama is now doing- taken the show on the road. Her husband would have been everywhere pushing, cajoling, and selling like a man on fire. As for President Clinton, her health care road show would look nothing like Obama's. Clinton is a happy warrior, not an effete fool reduced to begging. Reports on Clinton would reference Truman, not Carter. She could sell her compromise bill because not everything would have been compromised. And it would be, in many ways, the culmination of her life's work, not an ego trip. Americans would have continued to listen to President Hillary Clinton on this topic because they would not have at any point doubted her commitment and knowledge. Millions would have opposed nevertheless. But the debate would have been saner throughout. No one in Clinton's White House would have insulted an emergent - astroturfed or not - tea party movement. If someone had they'd have been kicked to the curb.
11. She would have signed a health are reform bill around last November.

Experience matters.

Is my little fantasy crazy? I think not. Clinton's road on this issue would have been brutal. But I repeat: Experience matters.

Alas, here we are, back in reality, wondering when the downpour of missed opportunities and sell outs will end.

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Sunday, March 7, 2010

Morning links etc.

Hard to overstate how important it is that a woman won the Oscar for Best Director. A true breakthrough event. Not to mention that Kathryn Bigelow heartily deserved to win. I truly hope The Hurt Locker finds a larger audience now.



Deep Economy: Our ideas of growth and development can’t involve the rest of the world (or even Americans) living like Americans. If the Chinese ate meat like Americans, they’d use 2/3 of the world grain harvest. If the Chinese owned cars like Americans, they’d use more than all the oil currently produced globally...But why should the world want to live like Americans when Europeans have a higher quality of life, work fewer hours, and use half as much energy. People in Kerala, India earn an average of a few dollars a day but have higher literacy and higher education rates and similar life expectancies as Americans. Americans don’t rank in the Top 10 in Quality of Life or Average Happiness while European countries dominate both lists. Read the rest.
Question of the Day - vote for all that apply:
Danny Boy: It's the time of year I can get away with posting as many versions of this perfect song as I like.

 



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